Probability engine

Source strength guide

How we communicate the authority behind each source. Source strength remains separate from the impact of the claim itself.

✓ Official

Official

Highest confidence evidence. Direct confirmation from official channels.

Includes

Glastonbury official announcements
Artist official websites and social channels
Management, label, or promoter confirmation

Direct Statement

Very strong evidence, but not always a final confirmation.

Includes

Artist interviews
BBC interviews with artists or organisers
Direct representative comments

Trusted Media

Professional journalism and industry reporting.

Includes

BBC
The Guardian
NME
Clash
DIY
The Line of Best Fit
Pitchfork
Rolling Stone UK
Music Week

Insider & Tour Intelligence

Strong signals built from insider information and tour analysis.

Includes

Trusted Discord insiders
Known forum insiders
Tour date gaps
Tour clashes and routing analysis

Emerging & Community Signal

Emerging and community signals include regional reporting, specialist trackers and established festival communities. Sources such as eFestivals can provide valuable early intelligence, and stronger tracker labels carry slightly more weight, but opaque sourcing means these signals still require independent corroboration.

Tracker confidence labels are considered, but original confirmation, direct quotes and concrete tour information carry more weight than copied articles, anonymous chatter or opaque tracker entries.

Includes

Regional & specialist reporting
Community research

View examples

Regional & specialist reporting

Daily MirrorSomersetLiveBristol LiveManchester Evening NewsLiverpool EchoBirmingham LiveWalesOnlineIrish MirrorDublin LiveClassic PopOther validated regional entertainment outletsSpecialist festival trackers

Community research

eFestivals tracker and forumHigh-engagement Reddit discussionsCredible fan-led investigationsEstablished festival community accounts

General Speculation

Lowest confidence evidence and should be treated with caution.

Includes

Reddit posts
X speculation
General community chatter